No 21 - Predictions for 2022
It’s a 2022 and I couldn’t think of anything else I wanted to write about this week. So I thought I would experiment with something new, and try to predict the future. I recently read “Superforcasting” and I wanted to try it out.
So, there will be predictions on healthcare, politics, finance and just life in general.
Start with the easiest one, there will be at least 3 new variants of COVID-19 in 2022. Each one will be more infectious but will produce milder symptoms and a lower fatality rate.
Due to the decreasing fatality rate of COVID, England will NOT lock down in 2022. Unless there is a new panic next winter. So the earliest possible new lockdown would be December 2022, however, I put this chance at 4%.
As of the 2nd Jan 2022:
Patients admitted on a daily basis - 1915 and totally 631,257. I predict the largest daily admission will not be over 3000 cases/day and the cumulative total will not go above 1 million (so less than 400k this year).
Patients in hospital is 11918 and will not go above 16000 during 2022.
Patients on ventilation total 868 and this wont go above 1000.
Corona virus cases testing positive will continue to increase in number until Feb 2022 and then will start to reduce again. As of the 2/1/22 the daily total testing positive is 137,583. I predict this will not go above 167,600 and by Feb it will be less than 100k/day.
In Sept 21 there were 6 million people waiting for a secondary care appointment or procedure. I predict this will increase into 2022 and will be 6.3 million by September this year, just because they will not be able to clear the backlog.
The government will not change pension taper and taxation rules, meaning that senior doctors will still be getting penalised for doing additional work. Therefore, there will be no great increase in outpatient or elective operating lists to clear the backlog.
There will be an increase in the use of private healthcare within the UK. Partly, the better off being fed up with waiting lists will seek private appointments and procedures and partly the NHS will have to start outsourcing elective procedures to private hospitals as they struggle to cope with poor flow. There will also probably be an increase in NHS use of private radiology scans to reduce waiting lists. It is difficult to get figures on these bits of data without doing a significant deep dive into lots of spreadsheets. So I am going to leave it vague and just say more money going into private medicine in the UK.
There will be updated vaccines released based on the latest COVID-19 variants.
COVID-19 Vaccines will not be compulsory for children in the UK during 2022.
The FTSE100 as of the 31/12/21 is 7384. By June 22, I think it will be over 7700 and will not dip below 7000 during 2022.
The government will not introduce any tax increases during 2022 but will not make any significant personal tax cuts either. They may reduce business taxes slightly.
UK general government gross debt in March 21 was £2223 billion and equivalent to 103.6% of GDP. By March 2022 I think the total will be £2297 billion and I the equivalent of GDP is tricky by around 115%
The Government deficit was £323.9 billion in March 21 and I am hoping it will be more like £200 Billion in March 22.
I will aim to release one article a week, so 52 in 2022, but if I publish more than 40 then I will be quite happy!
Hopefully, something other than COVID will be in the news during 2022!
Brits will continue to be fed-up with COVID regulations and there will be a reduction in mask wearing and the update of booster shots. The number of people using pubs and restaurants will return to 2019 levels and these businesses will have a better year.
The UK Government will be stable and Mr Johnson the PM will not face a coup from his party during 2022, however, I expect there may be plotting for a coup in 2023.
Bitcoin prediction = currently £34724 and it will go over £60k this year but will average around £40k.
As always, thank you for reading and let me know your thoughts! Happy New Year.